A newly found option to monitor magma actions beneath Mount Etna may assist scientists forecast when it would erupt.
Mount Etna, positioned on the Italian island of Sicily, is Europe’s largest energetic volcano. People have documented its exercise for the previous 2,700 years, however the volcano’s eruptive historical past stretches way back to 500,000 years.
The novel methodology may make it simpler to foretell Mount Etna’s eruptions. In a brand new research, researchers at Italy’s Nationwide Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) analyzed a parameter referred to as the b worth, which describes the ratio of low-magnitude to high-magnitude earthquakes in a area of Earth’s crust. This ratio can change as magma rises by means of the crust to the summit of a volcano, the researchers reported in a research revealed Oct. 8 within the journal Science Advances.
“Modifications within the b worth over time replicate how the stress contained in the volcano is evolving,” research lead creator Marco Firetto Carlino, a geophysicist at INGV’s Etna Observatory, instructed Stay Science in an e mail. “Since magma ascent induces stress adjustments throughout the crust, monitoring the b worth might help reveal totally different phases of magma switch from depth to the floor.”
The b worth is a longtime parameter in volcanology, however the researchers examined it in a novel means, with an up to date statistical mannequin. By compiling 20 years’ value of earthquake information from Mount Etna, they discovered a “very robust” correlation between the b worth and Etna’s volcanic exercise, Firetto Carlino stated.
Mount Etna sits within the collision zone between the African and European tectonic plates. Consequently, a vertical fracture in Earth’s crust referred to as a strike-slip fault underlies the volcano, thus facilitating the rise of magma to the floor, in response to the research.
The crust beneath Mount Etna is as much as 19 miles (30 km) thick. Magma rises by means of this quantity earlier than an eruption, however as an alternative of replenishing a single magma chamber, the molten rock feeds a sequence of interconnected storage zones which can be embedded within the crust at totally different depths.
The deepest magma storage zone is 7 miles (11 km) beneath sea stage, Firetto Carlino defined, and it feeds an intermediate storage system with totally different zones probably extending 2 to 4 miles (3 to 7 km) deep. As magma rises, it travels by means of an intricate community of fractures and ultimately reaches the final storage zone, which is positioned above sea stage contained in the volcano edifice.
The researchers had a wealth of knowledge to work with and extract b values from, because of Etna’s frequent exercise. They analyzed seismic patterns within the 19 miles of crust beneath the volcano from 2005 to 2024, paying specific consideration to how these patterns different between crustal areas.
Usually, areas of Earth’s crust with energetic magma storage zones present greater b values than extra steady areas do, as a result of the energetic zones expertise extra small earthquakes than greater ones.
“This occurs as a result of rocks affected by shifting magma develop into weak and extremely fractured,” Firetto Carlino stated. “For instance, when magma inside a storage releases volatiles, they permeate the encompassing rocks, making it simpler for small fractures to slide.”
Conversely, areas of Earth’s crust which can be extra steady sometimes expertise extra huge earthquakes than smaller ones, as a result of it takes extra pressure to interrupt the rock. “Rocks with good mechanical properties can retailer stress for longer durations,” Firetto Carlino stated. “After they lastly break, they produce bigger earthquakes, equivalent to decrease b values.”
So, by monitoring the b worth over time, it might be doable for researchers to comply with the motion of magma by means of the deep crust to the primary storage zone, up from there to the intermediate storage system, and up once more to the shallow storage zone. This methodology may assist specialists estimate the timings of eruptions at Mount Etna.
“Monitoring the b worth affords a robust option to observe magma motion throughout the crust and assess the volcano’s evolving state earlier than eruptions,” Firetto Carlino stated.
Mount Etna was a great check for the research because of its layered magma storage zones and massive seismic catalog, however the outcomes may also apply elsewhere.
“In precept, the b worth is also used to trace magma actions in different volcanic areas, offered {that a} adequate variety of earthquakes is offered and that their areas are distributed throughout totally different crustal sectors, effectively constrained by earlier geological research,” Firetto Carlino stated.
