The India Meteorological Department (IMD) introduces India’s first AI-enabled monsoon advance forecasting model, delivering precise predictions of monsoon onset at the block level every Wednesday for up to four weeks ahead. This launch coincides with projections of below-normal rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon across much of the country, though officials emphasize no direct link exists between the forecast and the model rollout.
Block-Level Monsoon Onset Model
Union Minister for Earth Sciences Dr. Jitendra Singh highlights that the model merges traditional numerical forecasts with AI to produce probabilistic predictions of monsoon progression. It carries a four-day margin of error and targets 3,196 blocks across 15 states and one Union Territory, focusing initially on rainfed regions. Expansion to additional areas follows soon.
Dr. M. Ravichandran, Secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, explains the model relies on a continuous five-day rainfall period without an extended dry spell over the subsequent 30 days. Dr. Singh adds, “This innovative system will greatly aid agricultural planning, disaster management, and water resource strategies.”
Developed under the Ministry of Agriculture’s oversight, the model delivers hyper-local, impact-focused services to farmers via ministry APIs and AgriStack platforms.
Uttar Pradesh High-Resolution Rainfall Pilot
In parallel, a pilot from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) provides rainfall predictions for Uttar Pradesh at a one-kilometer grid resolution—sharper than the prior 12.5-kilometer scale—up to 10 days in advance. Advanced AI downscaling integrates data from automatic rain gauges, weather stations, Doppler radars, and satellite observations.
Farmers gain precise insights for sowing, irrigation, crop protection, and harvesting decisions.
Current Monsoon and Weather Outlook
Conditions favor the southwest monsoon’s onset over the south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by week’s end, with IMD updates on further progress forthcoming this month.
Meanwhile, heatwaves persist in west Rajasthan for the next 6-7 days, and in east Rajasthan, central India, Gujarat, and Maharashtra for 4-5 days.
