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And then there were four.
The NASCAR Championship 4 field is set with two drivers from Hendrick Motorsports (William Byron and Kyle Larson) and two drivers from Joe Gibbs Racing (Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe).
The best finisher among those four drivers Sunday at Phoenix Raceway (all the drivers from throughout the season still race) wins the title.
Here are my playoff rankings based on who has the best shot at winning the title:
1. Kyle Larson
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 5 Chevrolet
Seeding: Fourth
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 19th; Gateway, 12th; Bristol, 32nd; Loudon, Seventh; Kansas, Sixth; Charlotte, Second; Las Vegas, Second; Talladega, 26th; Martinsville, Eighth
Champ 4 appearance: Third (2021-First, 2023-Second)
March 2025 Phoenix finish: Third
November 2024 Phoenix finish: Third
Why Larson Will Win Title: Larson and crew chief Cliff Daniels are the only ones who have won a Cup title, so they know they can get it done. When they hit on things, Larson’s talent and Daniels’ analytical mind can make them extremely tough to beat. Larson has one win and 10 top-five finishes at Phoenix.
Why Larson Won’t Win Title: Larson hasn’t won a race since Kansas in May, so he brings the longest winless drought of the four finalists into Phoenix, a race where the champion likely will have to win.
2. William Byron
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 24 Chevrolet
Seeding: Third
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 21st; Gateway, 11th; Bristol, 12th; Loudon, Third; Kansas, Ninth; Charlotte, 11th; Las Vegas, 36th; Talladega, 25th; Martinsville, First
Champ 4 appearance: Third (2023-Third, 2024-Third)
March 2025 Phoenix finish: Sixth
November 2024 Phoenix finish: Third
Why Byron Will Win Title: The Daytona 500 winner enters his third Champ 4 knowing how to handle the situation. He has led more laps than any other driver this year and won the regular-season title. While there have been some races where they missed badly, Byron is riding the momentum of the Martinsville victory.
Why Byron Won’t Win Title: Byron has finished third among the Champ 4 finalists the last two years and the fact he has just two top-five finishes in the playoffs is a serious cause for concern. Granted, some of the results weren’t his fault — running into the back of Ty Dillon at Vegas, getting wrecked on the last lap of Talladega — the facts are he doesn’t ride into the championship race with much consistency when it comes to results.
3. Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 11 Toyota
Seeding: Second
2025 playoff results: Darlington, Seventh; Gateway, First; Bristol, 31st; Loudon, 12th; Kansas, Second; Charlotte, 23rd; Las Vegas, First; Talladega, 24th; Martinsville, 35th
Champ 4 appearance: Fifth (2014-Third, 2019-Fourth, 2020-Fourth, 2021-Third)
March 2025 Phoenix finish: Second
November 2024 Phoenix finish: 11th
Why Hamlin Will Win Title: Because it’s about time that the sport’s most successful driver (60 Cup victories) without a title wins one. Plus, he is the driver with the most victories (six) this year. Nothing is going to faze Hamlin, who has led 939 laps in his career at Phoenix, a place where he has two career wins and 17 top-five finishes.
Why Hamlin Won’t Win Title: This will be Hamlin’s fifth time in the Champ 4 and looking at his past results among the finalists — third, fourth, fourth, third — this race just hasn’t treated him well. A recent rash of mechanical issues certainly doesn’t elicit confidence. While you could say fate would be that he would win it in his 19th playoff appearance, at 0-for-18, maybe never winning a title is his destiny.
4. Chase Briscoe
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 19 Toyota
Seeding: First
2025 playoff results: Darlington, First; Gateway, Second; Bristol, Ninth; Loudon, 10th; Kansas, Fourth; Charlotte, 14th; Las Vegas, Fourth; Talladega, First; Martinsville, 37th
Champ 4 appearance: First
March 2025 Phoenix finish: 35th
November 2024 Phoenix finish: 29th
Why Briscoe Will Win Title: Why not? The only driver among the four who hasn’t been to the Champ 4 doesn’t seem to let the big stage or the pressure get to him. He has the most top-five finishes (15) of any driver this year, and until Martinsville, was having one of the best playoff runs in history with five top-five finishes. Oh, and he has won at Phoenix — in a Stewart-Haas Racing car.
Why Briscoe Won’t Win Title: Not all of his top-five finishes were races where he had blistering speed. Except for his dominant performance at Darlington, he is more taking what races give him and capitalizing on opportunities. Whether that’s enough to win at Phoenix is a big if.
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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