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Let’s neglect convention logos and preseason narratives on this 12 months’s Gator Bowl.
No. 19 Virginia (10-3) constructed its season on disciplined, low-variance soccer and has lived in tight margins. It posted 4 straight one-score video games early within the 12 months — three in time beyond regulation — and even in its worst second, the ACC Championship loss to Duke, nonetheless pressured a neutral-field title recreation into further time.
Missouri (8-4) took a nosedive after a 5-0 begin.
The Tigers are excessively depending on a bodily, run-heavy recreation centered round Ahmad Hardy within the backfield. This offense will likely be grievously handicapped, nonetheless, heading into Saturday, dropping quarterback Beau Pribula, wideouts Marquis Johnson and Joshua Manning to the switch portal. That’s along with tight finish Brett Norfleet being sidelined and coordinator Kirby Moore skipping city for a gig at Washington State.
Hardy is elite, having posted 1,560 yards, which ranks second nationally. However with no different ability gamers to depend on, the Tigers have been stripped right down to a one-trick pony and Virginia’s strengths can exploit Missouri’s present vulnerabilities.
The Cavaliers had been a top-20 crew in yards allowed per carry and barely allowed explosive runs. With Missouri’s passing recreation additionally restricted, Virginia is prone to load the field and power backup quarterback Matt Zollers to beat them with desk scraps downfield.
Their offense is useful when it issues. Chandler Morris provides some mobility beneath heart and delivered a number of the best performs Virginia has had in years.
J’Mari Taylor isn’t only a 1,000-yard rusher; his 43 receptions give Virginia a pressure-release valve in opposition to a Missouri protection that has been constantly sturdy, limiting explosive performs.
Missouri beat just one bowl-bound crew all season. Virginia exceeded each cheap expectation, tied a program file with 10 wins, and is enjoying for its first 11-win season in 136 years of existence.
Betting on School Soccer?
This might have loads of fourth-quarter rigidity and taking greater than 4 factors with a crew that has thrived in shut video games all season performs because the sharp facet in line with experiences.
Virginia is under no circumstances a disengaged underdog drifting into bowl season — it’s a crew that has already proven it will probably win ugly and win late.
THE PLAY: UVA +4.5 (-114, FanDuel)
Why Belief New York Put up Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and faculty soccer for the New York Put up. He primarily focuses on picks that mirror market worth whereas monitoring developments to mitigate threat.
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